As the election season heats up, many potential homebuyers and sellers may wonder how it will affect the housing market. Historical trends and recent data provide some clarity on this topic.
Typically, from October to November, home sales experience a decrease of about 9.8%. However, in an election year, this decline can be even steeper, dropping by around 15%. This year, we’ve seen that 23% of first-time buyers are holding off on their purchases until after the election. While it may seem like a slowdown, this pause in activity is often temporary.
So, what happens after the election? Generally, home sales bounce back significantly. In fact, 82% of the time, sales increase the following year. Experts are forecasting a rise in home sales from 4.6 million in 2024 to 5.2 million in 2025. This historical pattern suggests that while elections may create short-term uncertainty, the market tends to rebound strongly afterward.
But what about mortgage rates during an election year? From July to November, mortgage rates have decreased 72% of the time in past election years. This year has been particularly volatile, with average rates dipping as low as 6.08% in September, down from nearly 8% last fall. This trend can create favorable conditions for buyers looking to secure a mortgage.
Home prices also tend to follow a predictable pattern post-election. Historically, prices have risen 88% of the time in the year following an election, with national projections indicating a continued increase of about 2.5% in 2025. This trend underscores the idea that presidential elections have only a small and temporary impact on the housing market.
Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will influence your homebuying or selling plans. By examining historical data alongside current market conditions, we can provide insight into what to expect.
While elections may cause some fluctuations in the housing market, they often present opportunities for both buyers and sellers. If you have questions about the market or are considering a move, don’t hesitate to reach out to us at Clayton & Clayton Realtors. We’re here to help you navigate the market and find the best path forward for your real estate needs.
